The science behind the forecast. We explain the big patterns, like El Niño, and what they could mean for the season ahead.
Hurricane Rachel jumped from a Category 1 to a major hurricane in a single day this fall, a week after Polo's winds rose roughly 104 mph in 24 hours. Here is what makes a hurricane intensify that fast, why Otis reached Acapulco as a Category 5 that no forecast anticipated, and how forecasters are learning to see it coming.
NOAA says this year's El Niño has a 75 percent chance of becoming the strongest observed since 1950 by the end of 2026. The event is already unusually powerful, but its eventual peak, duration, and regional effects remain matters of probability rather than certainty, with implications ranging from a wetter winter in parts of the Southeast and reduced Atlantic hurricane activity to weaker Asian monsoon rainfall and potentially another record-setting year for global temperatures in 2027.